Home > Ciclo 24 > Mr Vukcevic interviene sull’MTG forum riguardo la previsione del ciclo 24…

Mr Vukcevic interviene sull’MTG forum riguardo la previsione del ciclo 24…

1 novembre 2008

Ieri sera sul Td del sole dell’MTG forum, Mr Vukcevic così scrive:

Rectified SS record (polarity taken into account) shows much clearer past trends. Purple trend line shows a broken falling trend but is it likely?
Could Dr. Hathaway be right after all?
I am still betting on a low cycle.

In sostanza egli sembra prevedere un ciclo 24 debole… Ma ciò andrebbe contro a quello che lo stesso scienziato inglese affermava col famoso grafico che tutti abbiamo visto, o forse mi sbaglio?

Interpellato a tal proposito, lo stesso Vukcevic risponde:

Recently I was reminded that in Jan 2004 I wrote:
http://xxx.lanl.gov/ftp/astro-ph/pap…01/0401107.pdf
(pages 2 and 3): An approximation for the overall amplitude’s envelope, for the period 1800-2000, can be obtained by using sub-harmonics with periods of:
P1 = 118 (as above) and P2 = 3 x 96.5 = 289.5 (error should be 96.9 and 290.7)years and again T0 = 1941.
The equation is:
Y= A [B + Cos (3pi /2 + 2pi (t-T0)/P1 + 0.5Cos 2pi (t-T0)/P2]
A=60 and B=2 are the normalising coefficients.
The above equation gives:
If in 2012 max = 85; in 2013 max = 82.
I have to believe to my own work(?!).

Ai posteri l’ardua sentenza…

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